4月10日周四盘中，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）股价大跌5.01%，引发市场关注。这一跌势与高盛最新发布的美国银行业研报密切相关，该报告对大型银行的下行风险进行了深入分析。
高盛的报告指出，自2025年2月峰值以来，大型银行股已累计下跌25%。报告分析了六大下行风险因素，包括收益率曲线趋平、资本市场收入疲软、交易收入下滑、信贷质量恶化、贷款增长放缓以及股票回购暂停。这些因素可能导致大型银行2026年每股收益（EPS）面临约45%的下行风险。
具体到摩根士丹利，报告显示其在资本市场收入方面可能受到较大影响。假设投行业务增速放缓20个百分点，摩根士丹利的EPS可能下降2%，这是所有分析银行中下降幅度最大的。然而，在信贷质量恶化和贷款增长放缓方面，摩根士丹利受影响相对较小。尽管如此，高盛认为摩根士丹利在当前估值下仍具有一定吸引力。总体而言，这份报告描绘了银行业面临的严峻挑战，引发了投资者对整个行业前景的担忧，从而导致包括摩根士丹利在内的多家银行股价下跌。
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