富国银行(WFC)今日盘中大涨5.11%,此前美联准备会(Fed)宣布下调短期利率0.5个百分点,并制定了进一步降息路径,这为银行股的上涨带来了利好。
分析人士认为,降息政策将使银行的盈利能力得到提升,主要原因如下: 1) 利差扩大。降息将使短期利率下降,而银行通常以较低的短期利率借入资金、以较高的长期利率放贷,利差扩大将直接提高银行的盈利水平。 2) 经济活动增加。利率下调将刺激企业和消费者增加借贷,从而提高银行的贷款业务。 3) 银行股估值较低。目前银行股的估值相对便宜,上升空间较大。 4) 符合历史规律。过去20年,当银行股与大盘回报率差距超过200个百分点后,银行股往往会出现双位数涨幅。
美银行分析师Mike Wilson等人指出,富国银行(WFC)、汉廷顿银行(HBAN)、盟友金融(ALLY)以及美国银行(BAC)等4家银行有望最先从降息政策中获益,成为潜在的投资标的。这也是富国银行当日大涨的主要原因所在。
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