钢铁股10月30日重拾升势,鞍钢股份(00347)当天盘中大涨5.26%。惠誉评级预期,内地近日公布的房地产刺激措施将有助于稳定对基础材料的需求,提高钢材生产商的信心,从而实现更合理的定价。
但惠誉同时指出,由于下游需求仍疲软,加之产能尚未大幅退出,这将抑制钢材价格回升。该行认为,钢材行业今年前9个月产量按年下降4%,平均售价亦下滑。预计随下游活动增加推动均价回升,钢材生产商的利润率在9月开始反弹,10月持续回升,惟若不控制生产,利润率走阔将不可持续。
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