* Wall Street indexes green; Nasdaq out front
* Tech, cons disc, comms srvcs lead S&P sectors, up more than 2%
* Energy, consumer staples lag
* Dollar up; gold, oil rise; silver last up 7.4%
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.07%
Feb 1 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
SPAC M&A: JUST ANOTHER MANIC MONDAY (1245 EST/1745 GMT)
Dealmaking continues at a brisk pace as six SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) tie-ups were announced early Monday.
The biggest one comes from Fertitta Entertainment, parent of restaurant and gaming company Golden Nugget and restaurant-chain operator Landry's, which agreed to IPO through a merger with FAST Acquisition Corp in a deal valued at $6.6 billion.
Tuscan Holdings Corp's shares are surging more than 30% on news it will take electric-vehicle battery maker Microvast Inc public in a roughly $3 billion deal.
Deals involving private jet charter Wheels Up, Nexters Global, owner of mobile game Hero Wars, , data automotive firm Otonomo and biotech Ensysce Biosciences round out today's SPAC-related M&A news.
In a note last week, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin pointed to 265 SPACs that still need to acquire a target this year or in 2022. The aggregate value of these takeovers could exceed $410 billion, equivalent to 12% of the overall U.S. M&A volume during the last two years, Kostin added.
New issuance this year has already totaled 91 offerings for about $25 billion, per data provider SPAC Research. That compares to 248 offerings which raised $83 billion in all of 2020.
This as public interest in SPACs is at an all-time high, according to Google search trends chart below (100 = peak popularity):
(Lance Tupper)
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WHEN JANUARY BRINGS A FALL THEN WHAT? (1200 EST/1700 GMT)
On the first day of a new month, the rear view mirror can offer pictures of what's out front, even for the year ahead.
Citing an old Wall Street adage that January's stock performance tells a lot about the year, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe described the S&P's 1.1% decline for the first month of 2021 as a "modestly worrisome sign."
But this doesn't necessarily mean the sky will fall.
Since 1980, when the S&P showed January gains, its had a positive annual return 83% of the time with a 15.5% average gain, according to Rabe.
When its fallen in January, the S&P has gained in only 63% of those years with just a 2.2% average advance.
Rabe went on divide history into very bad, bad and slightly bad January performances with 'very bad' equating to a 5% plus decline for the month and 'bad' representing a 2-5% decline and 'slightly bad' referring to declines between 92 basis points and 2%, which applies to January 2021.
Even when the S&P falls in January, Rabe says it’s been positive the rest of the year 73% of the time and up an average of 5.3 pct from February to December.
While equities may not have the tailwind of falling interest rates this year they should have earnings leverage coming off the bottom of a cycle, potentially enabling an average rest-of-year return of 5% plus, she writes.
"While January 2021 did not start off on the best foot, there’s more historical precedence for it to register a positive performance over the balance of this year than negative," Rabe writes.
(Sinéad Carew)
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ONE YEAR INTO RECESSION, FACTORY ACTIVITY AND CONSTRUCTION EXPAND (1110 EST/1610 GMT)
A snowy start to February brought with it news of expanding factory activity on Monday, along with portents of growing inflation, and increased construction expenditures as the U.S. economy marked a year in pandemic-induced recession.
U.S. factory activity lost some steam in January, according to Institute for Supply Management $(ISM)$ purchasing managers' index $(PMI.UK)$ .
ISM posted a PMI reading of 58.7, representing a modest loss of momentum from December's 60.5 level and coming in below the 60 analysts expected.
A PMI number above 50 signifies increased activity from the previous month.
"Manufacturing sector prospects for 2021 are upbeat, with solid consumer goods demand, inventory restocking, gradual business reopenings, and additional federal pandemic relief all set to keep activity on a firm footing," writes Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics (OE).
A slowdown in the expansion of the "new orders" component was mitigated, however, by a jump in the "prices paid" subindex to the highest level in nearly a decade in a sign that long-languid inflation will begin to rise in the coming year.
Among the survey's respondents, the sentiment showed confidence mixed with caution:
"Very strong demand with limitations in supply to meet increased demand," (transportation equipment).
"We have had an increase in employees testing positive for COVID-19, negatively impacting manufacturing," (misc. manufacturing).
"Supply base is struggling to keep up with demand, disrupting our production here and there. COVID-19 continues to cause challenges throughout the supply chain," (machinery).
Global financial information firm IHS Markit also released its final take on manufacturing PMI , which edged up one-tenth of a point from the level previously reported, coming in at 59.2, representing a modest acceleration from December.
"Manufacturers are encountering major supply problems," says Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Markit.
"Lead times are lengthening to an extent not previously seen in the survey's history, meaning costs are rising as firms struggle to source sufficient quantities of inputs to meet production needs," Williamson added. "These higher costs are being passed on to customers in the form of higher prices, which rose in January at the fastest rate since 2008."
ISM and Markit PMI differ in the weight they give various subcomponents.
The graphic below shows how widely the indexes have differed over the last five years.
Finally, the Commerce Department released data on construction spending .
Expenditures on construction projects rose by 1% in December, extending the prior month's upwardly revised 1.1% gain.
The advance was driven by a 3.1% jump in spending on residential construction as builders struggle to replenish record low supplies amid a demand spike, as homebuyers flee for the suburbs in search of lower population density and home office space.
Year-on-year, residential construction expenditures are up a whopping 20.7%.
"We look for a gradual recovery in private, nonresidential investment as the recovery takes hold, while we expect the pace of housing starts to moderate slightly," says Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at OE. "Public outlays will likely continue to be constrained by tight state and local budgets despite a better than expected performance for revenues during the pandemic."
Investors were in a buying mood in morning trading
All three major indexes were green, with tech shares putting the Nasdaq out front.
(Stephen Culp)
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WALL STREET TRIES FOR A REBOUND (0941 EST/1441 GMT)
Wall Street's major indexes staged an opening rebound after Friday's sell off. While earnings reports were thin on the ground on Monday, retail investors shifted their focus to silver
with mining stocks soaring and the metal breaking above $30 an ounce for the first time since 2013.
Wall Street's main indexes last week logged their steepest weekly fall since October as investors gauged the ramifications of the latest COVID-19 vaccine trial results on Friday and a standoff between Wall Street hedge funds and retail investors added to volatility.
Among the S&P's 11 major sectors, most are higher with technology leading the gains. Real estate , consumer staples , utilities are lagging the most.
Here is your morning trading snapshot:
(Sinéad Carew)
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S&P 500: TIRED LEGS? (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
The S&P 500 index lost more than 1% for the month of January. This, as the benchmark index turned down after nearing a significant resistance hurdle, amid a protracted monthly momentum divergence:
Indeed, the SPX hit a high of 3,870.90 in January, which put it less than 1% from a log-scale monthly channel resistance line that was residing around 3,905. That line will ascend to around 3,975 in February.
Meanwhile, monthly momentum is lagging. Since registering an all-time high in early 2018, the RSI has been making lower highs. The most recent peak in December of last year came in shy of 2018-2019 tops. Of note, just since 2007, SPX declines of varying degree were preceded by monthly momentum divergence.
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR MONDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE:
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(Terence Gabriel and Lance Tupper are Reuters market analysts. The views expressed are their own)
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