金吾财讯 | 煤炭股午后发力走高，力量发展(01277)涨5.04%，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)涨3.87%，中国神华(01088)涨2.69%，中煤能源(01898)涨1.85%，蒙古焦煤(00975)涨0.99%。消息面上，平安证券表示，煤价在经历了今年7、8月份长江流域强降水频繁、水电贡献高增的情况下，动力煤仍然保持较为坚挺的走势，在高长协占比和生产成本抬升下，煤炭价格中枢的韧性逐步显现，四季度北方供热季的到来仍有望阶段性抬升煤价。同时，在高比例长协定价模式下，煤企优化的盈利能力和目前较良好的资产负债率有利于保障高分红高股息的兑现，在当前国内低利率环境下，煤企预期股息率显着高于十年期国债收益率，仍具备较好的投资价值。华泰证券表示，预计动力煤需求受近期水电对火电挤压减小和后续迎峰度冬支撑，而炼焦煤则受钢铁行业利润不振压制上游需求影响。基于二者供需基本面的分化，该行认为长协销售比例较高的动力煤龙头在24H2或能保持相对较好的盈利。在美联储降息周期或将开启、全球宏观利率或下行的情况下，高股息率的煤炭板块或重回红利逻辑。
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