金吾财讯 | 航空股全线下跌，中国东航(00670)跌5.41%，中国南航(01055)跌3.25%，中国国航(00753)跌2.67%，美兰空港(00357)跌1.9%，北京首都机场股份(00694)跌1.83%。国泰君安表示，暑运客流高峰持续至8月底，9月进入传统淡季，量价均明显回落，其中客流仍较2019年正增长。提示中秋短假因私短途出行为主而公商务缺失，对航空市场将是淡季小低谷。2024年航空市场供需恢复中，航空需求呈现淡旺季明显特征，春运暑运需求旺盛，预计淡季需求仍具韧性。预计机队周转或有所回落，航司或再次积极收益管理最大化收益，客座率有望维持接近2019年水平。公商务差旅费用管控与宽体机错配影响仍在，有待需求增长与国际增班继续驱动淡季供需恢复。待供需恢复，盈利中枢上升可期。关注逆向布局时机。
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