智通财经APP获悉，富瑞发布研究报告称，下调恒生银行(00011)目标价，由80港元略降至79港元，评级“跑输大市”；降东亚银行(00023)目标价由10港元降至9.5港元，评级“持有”。富瑞仍然认为恒生的不良贷款(NPL)仍未见顶，而由于空置率仍然高企及租金下跌，即使利率下调150基点，香港商业房地产的利息覆盖率仍然紧绌。
该行指出，由于近期利率预期改变，更新对香港银行预测模型，将2025财政年度平均利率预测下调约150个基点，意味着2025年第三季联储局利率为3.25%。目前市场对中银香港(02388) 预期颇为保守，限制该股进一步的下行空间；由于敏感度较高及资产增长疲弱，恒生银行表现可能较弱。
富瑞认为，市场对中银香港的共识已经足够保守。第二季的净息差较市场预期有韧性，加上严格控制及持续进行区域分布，在成本、贷款增长等有超越预期的空间。恒生银行上半年净利息收入已按半年下跌9%。若净息差进一步放缓，下半年其净利息收入同比跌幅可能扩大。该行认为，明年的净息差压力只会加剧，因此该行对恒生2025财年每股盈利及每股派息预测较市场预期低7%至8%。
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