【金十整理：机构前瞻美联储利率决议——或首降25bp，点阵图势成焦点，鲍威尔恐放鸽】1. 巴克莱：料降息25bp，今年总共降息75个基点，明年降息125个基点。鲍威尔或发出进一步降息的信号，但不会就未来降息的时间和步伐提供明确指导。2. 裕信银行：料降息25bp，下调核心PCE通胀和GDP增长预测，上调失业率预测。点阵图将表明今年共降息75bp，明年降息100bp。声明将强调数据依赖。3. 野村证券：料降息25bp，点阵图表明今年再降息50bp，明年降息100bp。美指最初将上涨50点。鲍威尔有可能放鸽，强调劳动力市场恶化，逆转美指涨势。4. 美国银行：料降息25bp，美元或下意识走高。点阵图将表明今年共降息75bp。近期劳动力市场趋势使鲍威尔倾向于不回击市场的定价，为鸽派解读打开大门。5. 法农信贷：料降息25bp，今年共降息50bp，明年降息150bp。也看到了降息周期更加提前的明显风险，导致2024年的预测中增加第三次25个基点的降息。6. 星展银行：料美联储本周将降息25个基点，到2025年底将降息150个基点。市场反映的降息幅度似乎过大，激进的定价可能失望而归，并最终引发恐慌。7. 北欧联合银行：料首次降息25个基点，降息50个基点会发出错误信号。目前的基线预期是仅每季度降息一次，降息25个基点仍然是未来最有可能的路径。
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