瑞银发表研报指，美国正式进入减息周期，港银随即宣布跟随减息步伐，将港元最优惠利率下调25个基点，意外成为香港楼市的“中秋节礼物”，带来利好消息，新造一手住宅按揭利率将由4.125%降至3.88%，有助于收窄与租金回报率之间的负息差。
综合市场上对美国今明两年减息预测，瑞银目前预期至明年底香港的新造按揭息率可降至2.9%，即较目前的3.88%进一步下降97个基点。假设今年港元最优惠利率可进一步下调25个基点，而租金回报率维持在3.5%，该行预测至今年底香港住宅应大致处于中性水平，可为楼市交投带来支持。
由于自2022年第三季起息率上调，估算有3.7万个本地置业需求被推迟，瑞银重申今年香港楼价下跌约5%的预测，换言之今年余下时间楼价将大致企稳或轻微回升，看好恒地(00012.HK) 、嘉里建设(00683.HK) 及新地(00016.HK) 等发展商可受惠于今次意外减P。
瑞银又指，美国减息亦可降低发展商的利息支出，惟写字楼市场供应增加、外游导致消费力向外走，以及内地旅客消费复苏疲弱等因素，仍会对香港收租股带来挑战，故倾向发展商多于收租股，首选股为恒地、嘉里及太古地产(01972.HK) 。目标价及最新评级详见另表。(gc/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-09-19 16:25。)
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