摩根大通近日发表报告，香港地产股自7月初以来表现优于恒指8%，主要是由于降息预期，然而在实际降息之后，该行认为港地产股或不一定再跑赢大市，因为行业基本面(住宅、办公和零售)可能仍然不温不火。该行指大多数本港地产公司均已公布业绩，相信降息预期已被市场大部分被消化，因此该行对地产股取态更有选择，优先选择具有以下特点的公司：第一是股息确定性较高；第二是承诺股份回购计划；第三是具涉及相对弹性的次产业(必需消费品)。
该行表示，首选是领展(00823.HK) (料11月公布中期业绩派息可优预期)、太古地产(01972.HK) (承诺回购和中单位数每股股息成长)和长和(00001.HK) (中国业务风险敞口较小及盈利增长复苏)，均予“增持”评级，各予目标价42元、16.2元及50元。
摩通对新世界发展(00017.HK) (面临流动性压力)和九龙仓置业(01997.HK) (料受香港奢侈品零售疲软影响)保持谨慎态度。该行表示，假设利率每下调100个基点，按固定负债比率计算，料对本港地产股明年度核心盈利则平均录正增长为3.7%影响。(wl/k)
(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-09-16 16:25。)
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