金吾财讯 | 华创证券发研指，锦欣生殖(01951)于2024上半年实现收入14.44亿元(+8.2%)，保持稳健增长。上半年公司海外业务实现收入3.91亿元（+11.5%），该行预计这主要是由于HRCMedical大力推广海外业务中的冻卵业务以及国际业务的恢复。2024上半年公司毛利率为40.4%（-1.9pct），该行预计毛利率下降的主要原因是美国业务扩张招募新医生导致人力成本增加。该行表示，鉴于辅助生殖纳入医保未来有望加速带来行业渗透率提升，凭借较强的运营整合能力、优秀的品牌和平台，公司市占率（取卵周期数）有望稳步提升。该行预计24-26年公司收入为31.80、35.95和40.23亿元，同比增速分别为13.0%、13.1%和11.9%；公司经调整归母净利润预测值为5.04、5.71和6.39亿元，同比增速分别为7.0%、13.2%和12.0%。参考港股可比公司，该行给予公司2024年20x目标PE，对应目标市值91亿港元，对应目标股价3.3港元。维持“推荐”评级。
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