锌:利好政策释出,宏微观共振支撑价格上行

金十财经
26 Sep 2024

【锌:利好政策释出,宏微观共振支撑价格上行】金十期货09月26日讯,国泰君安期货点评:国内三大政策包集中发力,有利于提振经济复苏信心,宏观情绪升温支撑锌价回升,此外,政策影响或将逐步传导至地产板块修复,黑色金属板块明显反弹,与钢材消费终端交叉较多的锌亦相比其他有色获得更大价格上浮弹性。展望后续基本面,短期内矿端增量不足,例如此前宣布复产的OZ矿仍存设备扰动停工,紧缺程度难以有效缓解,叠加冬储阶段渐近,四季度冶炼端开工率修复的程度或有限。而需求的边际回暖主要由基建(需求占比约35%)尤其是电力板块贡献,一旦地产(15%左右)企稳,将更加夯实锌原料紧张、供需缺口的格局。此外,需关注节前盘面流动性变化、十一期间海外宏观数据等因素扰动。

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