Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. HRTG shares are trading at a discount to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry. Its price-to-book value of 1.42X is lower than the industry average of 1.62X, the broader sector’s 3.8X and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s 8.69X.

It has a Value Score of A. Back-tested results have shown that stocks with a solid Value Score and a favorable Zacks Rank are the most attractive, and their returns are better. 

This super-regional U.S. property and casualty insurance holding company has a market capitalization of $362.4 million. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 0.5 million.
 

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The stock remains attractively valued compared with NMI Holdings NMIH but expensive when compared with MGIC Investment Corporation MTG and Radian Group RDN.

An Outperformer

Heritage Insurance shares have rallied 82.5% in the past three months, outperforming its industry, sector and Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return in the same time frame. Prudent underwriting execution and rate adequacy initiatives pursued over the last three years are expected to drive its earnings ahead.

HRTG vs Industry, Sector & S&P 500 in 3 Months

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HRTG Trading Above 50-Day Moving Average

HRTG shares are trading well above the 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. 

HRTG Price Movement vs. 50-Day Moving Average

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Positive Analyst Sentiment for HRTG

Two analysts covering the stock have raised estimates for 2024 and 2025 over the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 has moved 33.1% and 26.7% north, respectively, in the past 60 days.
 

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 implies a 10.3% year-over-year increase, while the same for 2025 suggests an 18.1% increase.

What’s Favoring HRTG?

Rate adequacy, limiting new business in over-concentrated markets or products and selective profit-oriented underwriting criteria should drive growth at Heritage Insurance. It stopped writing new personal lines policies in Florida and the Northeast, given the waning profitability of the book of business, coupled with tightening reinsurance markets in December 2022. 

No single state accounts for more than 27.3% of HRTG’s total insured value. Though this selective diversification helps in managing volatility and ensures long-term stability, there has been a decline in policy count. HRTG expects the headwind from declining policies to begin to moderate over the next few quarters.

The excess and supply (E&S) business is another growth driver for Heritage. It witnessed strong performance in California, Florida and South Carolina. HRTG stated that it will consider and evaluate growth opportunities in a greater number of states. 

Heritage Insurance has a solid reinsurance program in place that protects its balance sheet, particularly given coastal exposure to hurricanes and other severe weather events. Improvements in the reinsurance program from a cost and structure standpoint and growing gross premiums earned should help lower the ceded premium ratio as well. 

Heritage Insurance’s capital management seems prudent. While the insurer suspended dividend payments to strengthen its financial position and support long-term growth initiatives, it also diverted capital toward technology and to the segments that have the potential to yield more profits.  

HRTG has a Growth Score of A. 

HRTG’s Return on Capital

Return on equity in the trailing 12 months was 26.3%, higher than the industry average of 8%. Return on equity, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company is utilizing its shareholders.
 

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Its return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing for quite some time. This reflects HRTG’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 17.2%, higher than the industry average of 6.1%.

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What Should You Do With HRTG Stock Now?

HRTG’s focus on growing its commercial and residential business organically, ramping up E&S business, improving pricing, increasing top line, expanding margins and delivering strong earnings bodes well for growth. HRTG currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a VGM Score of B, making it an attractive investment option. 

Given favorable valuation, positive analyst sentiment and its growth prospects, the time appears right for potential investors to bet on this insurer. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) : Free Stock Analysis Report

NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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