恒生银行经济研究部表示，维持对内地今年经济增长4.9%预测，指净出口有所改善，成为今年支持经济增长的重要正面因素；消费信心低迷导致内地本土需求减弱，消费对经济的贡献有所下降；而车辆、船舶及高技术产品的出口录得稳步增长。
该行指，统计数字显示，今年对外贸易有所复苏，过去三个月出口的平均按年增长率超过8%，而去年则大多数时间出现收缩，主要原因是去年的增速大幅下滑为今年的比较数字提供了有利的基数效应，其次是市场揣测部分厂商将一些本来是年底的订单提前早到年初至年中的时间，这或是出于对11月美国总统大选的担忧，忧虑美国可能会进一步采取不利的贸易政策。
尽管贸易关系依然紧张，但一些主要商品的出口仍保持稳健增长，7月汽车出口按年增加14%，船舶出口7月份按年增长达55%，显示内地造船能力快速提升。有市场研究甚至指出8月分内地船舶订单量占全球船舶订单量近9成。(vc/u)
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