Oil surged for a second day after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, drawing a vow of retaliation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and raising the risks to crude supplies from the region.

West Texas Intermediate briefly topped $71 a barrel in Asian trading, after closing 2.4% higher on Tuesday following the Iranian assault, which was preceded by a warning from the US that an attack was imminent. Global crude benchmark Brent closed 2.5% higher.

Crude’s advance reflects investors pricing in a renewed risk premium for the world’s preeminent commodity as the Middle East accounts for about one-third of global supplies. While Israel and Iran have been facing off since the outbreak of the war in Gaza against Tehran-backed Hamas almost a year ago, previous spikes have tended to fade in the absence of actual interruptions to output.

“Any sustained rally in oil prices will be determined by whether Israel responds to this latest move with its own direct attack on its military, infrastructure or its oil industry,” ANZ Group Holdings said in a note.

Tensions in the Middle East have increased markedly after the killing of Hezbollah’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, last week. On Monday, Israel bombed the center of Beirut and its troops have begun what it called “targeted ground raids” in Lebanon. Hezbollah is also backed by Tehran.

After Tuesday’s missile salvo, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country’s action was concluded unless Israel “decides to invite further retaliation,” according to a post on X. In Israel, Netanyahu said Iran had made a big mistake, “and it will pay for it.”