Australian general insurers remain "compelling" amid a softer cash rate outlook by the Reserve Bank of Australia, with QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE) the top pick due to its 11.1x price-to-earnings ratio and around 16% total shareholder return outlook, according to a Wednesday note from Jarden Research.
Outlooks for Insurance Australia Group (ASX:IAG) and Suncorp Group (ASX:SUN) remain on track, with potential upsides if inflation eases, the investment firm said. Private health insurer Medibank Private (ASX:MPL) is less likely to see a rebound in claims inflation and rising regulatory risks over nib Holdings (ASX:NHF).
Meanwhile, Steadfast Group (ASX:SDF) and AUB Group (ASX:AUB) have more compelling value as brokers in the sector, with Jarden preferring AUB due to greater margin expansion and lower regulatory risks, according to the note.
Australian brokers' commercial return on equities remains at double-digit levels and cost of revenue below 90%. Jarden expects downward pressure on pricing despite rates being expected to stay at mid- to high-single digits, the note stated.