China's 'Second Arrow' Still Missing -- Market Talk

Dow Jones
08 Oct 2024

0527 GMT - There seems to be a limited chance that Chinese policymakers will announce meaningful demand stimulus near term, especially one geared toward consumers, Morgan Stanley economists led by Robin Xing say. Policymakers at a press conference earlier struck a measured tone on direct demand stimulus, and the mix of incremental support remains somewhat investment-centric, they write in a note. MS continues to expect a modest sequential improvement in economic growth over 4Q 2024-1Q 2025, but notes that sustainable reflation requires a larger fiscal package on consumption, debt restructuring and housing. Foreign investors could take a "not trust but verify" approach as they assess Beijing's commitment to reflation, which may remain a bumpy road in the medium term, MS says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 08, 2024 01:27 ET (05:27 GMT)

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