金吾财讯 | 建材水泥股集体走高，山水水泥(00691)涨15.22%，中国建材(03323)涨7.72%，华润建材科技(01313)涨6.45%，金隅集团(02009)涨5.33%，华新水泥(06655)涨2.74%。民生证券表示，从历年经验看，一是水泥基本面反应会滞后，从政策、发行债务、资金落地、形成实物工作量需要时间，估计前1-2年内价格反应平淡；二是项目结构尤为关键，铁路/道路/公路/机场/桥隧对水泥拉动量明显，电力/运河/水利等用量总和偏少，中央发力着力点在超大型基建，新基建项目无论是中央投资还是地方投资，近两年在审批角度更占优；三是化解地方债务风险部分产生“投资收缩”效应，尤其受到地产需求影响，基建边际贡献较为重要，9月国新办发布会提及“国内高风险机构集聚的地区，都已经形成了具体的改革化解方案，正在按照一省一策，稳妥有序地推进实施”，建议关注贵州、江西、浙江、江苏等省相继印发实施省以下财政体制改革方案的实施效果。
最后，该行看好水泥新一轮供需周期共振，缺少地产的叠加，价格弹性可能不及2016-2020年区间，但对当前水泥龙头的ROE都是边际修复，水泥板块预期差仍然较大。
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