金吾财讯 | 建银国际发研报指，领展(00823)上周举行了电话会议并发布了2025财年第一季度（4-6月）经营数据。其中香港商场零售额下降5.9%，略好于香港整体零售市场9.9%的下降。餐饮/超市和食品/一般零售分别下降1.5%/5.9%/9.4%，而2024财年的数据为4.6%/-5.1%/1.3%。该行认为，当前利率下行缓解业主供款压力及股市上涨带来正财富效应，应能对冲房价下跌带来的负财富效应。公司零售额可能在未来3-6个月触底，预计总下降幅度8-10%。续租租金调整率最终下降约3-5%。该行指，尽管香港投资组合的租金可能会下降，但该行认为领展能通过回购或收并购中和租金下滑的影响。假设用尽公司设定的债务上限，即净负债比率从19.5%升至25%，领展可以动用多达80亿港元回购约2亿股，即8%的股本（该行的基本预测是每年1.5%），足以产生高达约8%的DPU增长。公司还准备进军海外市场，已经在日本设立了当地的团队寻找投资目标。该行续指，公司的反弹滞后于市场27%和同行22%，这可能是由于REIT未纳入港股通导致。预计港股通将是公司股价的重要催化剂。目标价由43港元上调至45港元。维持“优于大市”评级。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.