港股异动 | 电力股今日普涨 机构称大盘速涨时板块通常跑输 长期看公用事业化进程仍将演绎

智通财经
10 Oct 2024

智通财经APP获悉,电力股今日普涨,截至发稿,中国电力(02380)涨7.78%,报3.74港元;金风科技(02208)涨7.33%,报6.59港元;龙源电力(00916)涨6.35%,报7.03港元;华润电力(00836)涨6.24%,报21.1港元;华能国际(00902)涨3.3%,报4.69港元。

广发证券指出,复盘历史多轮大盘速涨,结论来看,除2014-2015年外显著跑赢外,电力整体指数通常大幅度跑输。但是细分来看,风电、光伏板块又相较电力指数有明显超额。短期视角来看,风电、光伏的PB分别处于2016年中至今的9%、7%分位,我们认为具备向上弹性,尤其是港股;关注进入10月的三季报业绩期,如发电量同环比均有改善的水电、火电,预计业绩较为突出;关注电价签订和辅助服务细则落地下的火电,尤其板块7月以来已大幅调整近10%,超跌幅度较为明显,当前仅略超1倍PB。更长期的视角,板块公用事业化进程仍将演绎。

山西证券表示,短期来看,上游燃料价格大幅反弹可能性较弱,利好火电板块成本端;8月水电对火电电量挤占影响削弱,预计后续火电电量持续向好;长期来看,煤电容量电价机制逐步推进,通过容量电价回收固定成本的比例逐步提升,两部制电价将持续支撑火电企业稳定盈利能力及分红能力;新型电力系统建设下火电辅助服务收入有望提升;火电标的商业模式改善下的新价值点仍有待市场挖掘。

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