智通财经APP获悉,钢铁股跌幅居前,截至发稿,重庆钢铁股份(01053)跌13.13%,报0.86港元;马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)跌6.87%,报1.22港元;鞍钢股份(00347)跌5.1%,报1.49港元;铁货(01029)跌3.39%,报0.114港元。
兴业证券指出,地产下行导致需求减量、基建项目进展不及预期,为2024年拖累钢铁的两大因素。9月下旬的国新办发布会和政治局会议针对地产和财政发出积极信号,市场情绪得以扭转。由于钢铁产业链前期经历了惨烈的降价甩货,一旦预期好转,库存将被迫回补,钢价弹性极大。该行指出,当前钢铁板块存在大量严重破净的公司,未来伴随着钢价快速回升,钢铁股有望迎来价值重估。
长江证券则指出,在国内一系列经济政策出台催化之下,经济预期修复,叠加破净、兼并重组等概念共振,上周钢铁板块商品和权益的反弹弹性显著。本轮预期驱动的持续性,或至少延续至2025年的开工旺季。不过,尊重历史规律,铁水产量仍是需密切跟踪的指标。尽管本轮钢铁底部条件夯实,上升弹性显著,但倘若铁水产量大幅增长,可能会引发市场情绪上的压力,引发阶段性调整。
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