智通财经APP获悉，航空股延续下跌，截至发稿，中国国航(00753)跌4.14%，报3.94港元；东方航空(00670)跌3.64%，报2.12港元；南方航空(01055)跌3.17%，报3.05港元；美兰空港(00357)跌2.38%，报8.21港元。
国泰君安表示，“十一”假期客流再创新高，节后需求逐步恢复中，航司继续客座率优先，票价低迷而客流客座率维持高位。建议关注10月底航班换季国际航权继续恢复节奏。2023年—2024年航空供需逐步恢复中，2023年机队周转逐步恢复，2024年客座率基本恢复，2025年期待收益与盈利表现。国际增班趋势持续，未来消费提振有望加速供需恢复。待供需恢复，盈利中枢上升可期。预期处低位，油价中枢回落将助力旺季展现盈利超预期弹性，有望催化乐观预期。
此外，燃油成本占航司成本近四成。国泰君安此前在研报中指出，油价中枢已同比下降，提示Q4淡季供需承压或将转化为票价下降，而春运暑运等旺季供需恢复良好将大概率展现超预期盈利弹性，有望催化乐观预期。近日油价短期波动或影响投资情绪，不改航空油价下跌期权与长期价值，或提供逆向时机。
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