** Barclays says European miners could have a decent Q4 with seasonality tailwinds, near-term support for base metals from potential China stimulus and global rate cuts
** Any benefits from Chinese stimulus are likely to be felt in a (modest) acceleration in base metals demand from accelerating the equipment/appliance upgrading program, with steel & iron ore demand largely unchanged, it says
** Global central banks moving to an easing cycle should benefit the mining sector via restocking, recovering construction activity and a weaker USD, it adds
** The broker points out that copper, aluminium and metallurgical coal are supported by supply side constraints, while it sees the gold bull market set to continue as real yields decline
** Barclays notes the U.S. election outcome could be a negative catalyst if it results in a step-change in China tariffs, as seen during Donald Trump's presidency in 2018
** It downgrades Boliden to "underweight" from "overweight" on M&A and project delivery risk, headwinds from zinc and copper treatment charge and refining charge contract settlements into 2025, among others
** Its preferred "overweight"-rated names are Glencore , Anglo American
, and Norsk Hydro
** Among precious metals, it highlights Endeavour Mining and Hochschild Mining , citing their spot FCF yields
COMPANY RATING OLD RATING PT OLD PT
Anglo American overweight n/a GBP 26.00 GBP 27.40
Antofagasta underweight n/a GBP 15.50 GBP 16.00
BHP equal-weight n/a GBP 24.00 GBP 25.50
Boliden overweight underweight SEK 300.00 SEK 365.00
Endeavour Mining overweight n/a GBP 24.00 GBP 29.00
Ferrexpo equal-weight n/a GBP 100 GBP 100
First Quantum Minerals equal-weight n/a CAD 17.00 CAD 18.00
Fresnillo equal-weight n/a GBP 800 GBP 685
Glencore overweight n/a GBP 485 GBP 520
Hochschild Mining overweight n/a GBP 240 GBP 205
Norsk Hydro overweight n/a NOK 87.00 NOK 89.00
Petra Diamonds equal-weight n/a GBP 0.39 GBP 0.39
Rio Tinto overweight n/a GBP 57.00 GBP 62.50
South32 overweight n/a GBP 2.05 GBP 2.00
Vale overweight n/a $16.00 $17.00
(Reporting by Marta Frąckowiak)
((marta.frackowiak@thomsonreuters.com))
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