花旗发表报告指出,预期腾讯音乐将于11月11日当周披露第三季业绩,结果可能与市场预期一致。该行料腾讯音乐第三季总收入按年增长7%至70亿元,符合市场预期;经调整净利润料为18.9亿元,利润率27%,略低于市场预期的19.1亿元。该行预期,腾讯音乐第三季的在线音乐收入按年升23%至55.7亿元,主要受惠于订阅收入按年增长21%,而付费用户料按年升15.3%至1.19亿,平均每付费用户收入(ARPPU)料按年增长5%至10.82元。非订阅音乐收入料按年升26%至17.2亿元。社交娱乐收入预测按年跌29%至14.3亿元。毛利率及经营利润率由去年同期的35.7%和26%,料升至42.4%及34.6%。
展望第四季,该行料腾讯音乐收入按年升5%至72.3亿元,在线音乐收入预测升16%,但被社交娱乐收入跌25%抵销。该行对腾讯音乐的收入及盈利预测维持不变,维持“买入”评级,目标价15美元,看好其订阅收入增长稳定及良好的盈利可见度,并预期公司第三季及第四季的净利润分别增长25.6%与16.9%。
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