It's been a soft week for AGBA Group Holding Limited (NASDAQ:AGBA) shares, which are down 21%. But that cannot eclipse the spectacular share price rise we've seen over the last twelve months. Few could complain about the impressive 351% rise, throughout the period. So we wouldn't blame sellers for taking some profits. While winners often keep winning, it can pay to be cautious after a strong rise.

In light of the stock dropping 21% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.

View our latest analysis for AGBA Group Holding

Because AGBA Group Holding made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

AGBA Group Holding actually shrunk its revenue over the last year, with a reduction of 28%. This is in stark contrast to the splendorous stock price, which has rocketed 351% since this time a year ago. There can be no doubt this kind of decoupling of revenue growth and share price growth is unusual to see in loss making companies. While this gain looks like speculative buying to us, sometimes speculation pays off.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that AGBA Group Holding shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 351% over one year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 12% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that AGBA Group Holding is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 4 of those are concerning...

We will like AGBA Group Holding better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.