瑞银发表报告指出,瑞银证据实验室(UBS Evidence Lab)于8月4日至9月4日期间,就中国住房调查中访问2,500名内地消费者,结果显示随着本港印花税的取消,29%受访者表示有兴趣来港置业,当中18%受访者指未来两年计划入市,而香港仍是中国内地以外的置业首选目的地。
该行认为,内地客买港楼意欲进一步提升,对香港楼市正面,特别是新楼销售方面,而他们移民香港的意向,亦支持该行对香港未来人口增长的正面看法,从而为住宅租金带来结构性的上升趋势(料2024至2030年年均复合增长率为5%)。加上进一步下调按揭利率,该行预期香港楼价将于明年回升,由原预期持平,调整至增长5%。
而在预算方面,受访者表示目标买入低于800万元人民币的港楼。该行认为,中国紧缩的资本管控仍是内地客来港置业的主要障碍。
在该行所覆盖的股份中,该行偏好发展商股多于收租股,并看好恒地(00012.HK) 、嘉里建设
(00683.HK) 、信和置业(00083.HK) 及新地(00016.HK) ,目标价及评级看另表。(jl/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-10-18 16:25。)
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