智通财经APP获悉，乳业股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国飞鹤(06186)涨5.21%，报5.86港元；优然乳业(09858)涨3.85%，报1.35港元；蒙牛乳业(02319)涨3.27%，报16.44港元；澳优(01717)涨2.02%，报2.02港元。
广发证券指出，2024年以来原奶处于下行周期，供过于求局面延续。上半年龙头乳企推动去库存，报表端压力较大。Q3以来随着渠道库存逐步趋于健康，叠加中秋国庆双节备货刺激动销，乳企发货有望环比Q2改善，收入降幅或有所收窄。根据马上赢监测的线下渠道销售表现，7-8月乳制品销售降幅环比整体收窄。9月以来农业部及各省市区加大对乳业政策支持力度。
中信建投指出，乳业是政策刺激板块之一，节前乳制品受到一系列政策扶持，包括鼓励有条件的地方通过发放消费券等方式，拉动牛奶消费。预计Q3各乳业基本面在企稳的基础上有望出现改善。此外，从成本来看，今年原奶成本基本在低位运行，生鲜乳同比基本保持两位数降幅，饲料中，如玉米价格，也有所下降，养殖成本有所改善，对乳企而言成本压力减小。
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