金吾财讯 | 安信国际发研指，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)Q3实现权益产量1020万吨，权益销量1040万吨（YOY+10%,HOH+24%），当中动力煤900万吨，冶金煤140万吨。今年1-9月，商品煤权益总产量2720万吨，同比增长15%。上半年产量仍受到工作面接续和雨水的影响，重点矿山产量有所受影响，而Q3产量进一步恢复，预计Q4可以维持Q3的产量水平。公司维持全年3500-3900万吨的指引。该行指出，公司上半年的现金成本仍然受到通胀等影响，但是随着产量的进一步提升，预计煤炭的单位成本能够有较好的下降。公司维持年初的现金经营成本指引在89-97澳元/吨。而公司的权益资本开支指引为6.5-8亿澳元，全年有望处于区间低端。该行表示，认为公司今年产量会有进一步恢复，煤价总体保持较为平衡状态，利润率仍然维持相对较好水平。对于公司2024/2025年的EPS预测，分别为0.78/0.98澳元。结合行业估值和公司的前景，该行给予2025年P/E倍数7.5x，对应股价38.2港元。该行维持“买入”评级，目标价38.2港元。
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