金吾财讯 | 乳制品多数走高，蒙牛乳业(02319)涨3.3%，中国飞鹤(06186)涨2.71%，澳优(01717)、现代牧业(01117)涨逾1%。中信建投表示，乳业是受益于政策刺激的行业之一，在节假日之前，乳制品受到了多项政策措施的支持，例如鼓励有条件的地方通过发放消费券来促进牛奶消费。预计在第三季度，各大乳企的基本面将在稳定的基础上进一步改善。从成本角度来看，今年原奶的价格维持在相对较低水平，生鲜乳的价格同比下降达到了两位数百分比，同时作为饲料主要成分之一的玉米价格也有所下降，这使得养殖成本得以降低，从而减轻了乳品企业的成本压力。广发证券亦指出，2024年以来，原奶市场处于下行周期，供应过剩的局面持续存在。在今年上半年，行业领军企业采取了去库存措施，这给财务报表带来了较大压力。然而，进入第三季度，随着渠道库存逐渐恢复正常水平，加之中秋和国庆双节的到来刺激了市场需求，乳品企业的出货量相比第二季度有了好转迹象，收入减少幅度也有望缩小。根据马上赢的数据监测，在7月和8月期间，乳制品的线下销售渠道销量下滑的趋势已经得到了缓解。自9月份起，农业部及各地政府加大了对乳业的支持力度。
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