Merchants Bancorp (NASDAQ:MBIN) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 13% in the last quarter. But that doesn't undermine the fantastic longer term performance (measured over five years). In fact, during that period, the share price climbed 301%. Impressive! So we don't think the recent decline in the share price means its story is a sad one. Of course what matters most is whether the business can improve itself sustainably, thus justifying a higher price.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 4.0%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
See our latest analysis for Merchants Bancorp
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Merchants Bancorp achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 37% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 32% per year. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free interactive report on Merchants Bancorp's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Merchants Bancorp the TSR over the last 5 years was 325%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
It's good to see that Merchants Bancorp has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 68% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 34%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Merchants Bancorp that you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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