Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Dynatrace (DT) earns a Zacks Rank #3 16 days from its next quarterly earnings release on November 7, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.33 a share.
Dynatrace's Earnings ESP sits at 1.97%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.33 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.32.
DT is part of a big group of Computer and Technology stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) as well.
Cadence Design Systems is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 28, 2024. CDNS' Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.45 a share six days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cadence Design Systems is $1.44, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 0.69%.
DT and CDNS' positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Dynatrace, Inc. (DT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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