锌:供给矛盾赋予锌价上浮弹性,关注流动性变化

金十财经
24 Oct 2024

【锌:供给矛盾赋予锌价上浮弹性,关注流动性变化】金十期货10月24日讯,国泰君安期货点评:近期伦锌Back结构迅速走阔、近端合约多头集中程度高,流动性风险抬升,沪锌获取跟随上涨动能,主力合约日内涨超3%,近远月2411-2412合约价差由平水扩大至50元/吨左右Back。进入四季度以来,海外供应端矿冶扰动频发,包括欧洲冶炼厂因电力税等因素计划减产、澳洲Century尾矿受山火影响减量等,均为CASH-3M结构转变以及内外比价下行提供助力。在2025年TC Benchmark落定前的预期博弈阶段中,炼厂与矿山的消息或实际干扰可能持续偏强,二者之一减产均将缩减供应,且为价格注入短期上行催化剂。不过,高价对国内需求端的反噬依然存在,需持续跟踪海内外持仓变化,警惕流动性溢价回吐风险。

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