【铜：周五传闻有冶炼厂与矿山已用较低TC价格签订部分长单】金十期货10月24日讯，矿端情况来看，TC长单谈判焦灼，周五传闻有冶炼厂与矿山已用较低TC价格签订部分长单，但大部分冶炼厂与矿山报价差距较大，预期谈判仍将持续一段时间。近期矿端扰动较多，铜精矿供应偏紧；冶炼端来看，部分冶炼厂检修时间延长，10月5家冶炼厂有检修计划，10月产量有继续环比下滑预期，预期单月产量98-99万吨。海外非洲港口拥堵问题缓解，预期10月下旬非洲非标铜进口到达量级增加，南美方面亦增加发货，10月进口量及预期环比增加。终端消费方面，节后回来后下游订单偏弱，市场观望情绪浓，现货升贴水继续走弱，下游长单谈判进展亦焦灼，预期长单升贴水较去年有一定下滑。临近传统消费淡季，虽有稳增长政策出台但消费量级仍不乐观，终端企业对后市需求并不乐观，再生铜开工继续修复性回升，精铜杆开工率维持平稳，线缆开工率环比继续下滑。整体来看，预期铜价继续箱型区间震荡，上方空间受限于现实消费成色，国内社库累积海外亦无特别亮点，下方又受到海外二次通胀的宏观叙事以及近期黄金价格大幅上扬的托底，建议短期内仍以震荡思路看待。
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