兴业证券王涵 | 特朗普的目标与现实 ——经济每月谈第六期

王涵论宏观
31 Oct 2024

要点特朗普的竞选策略延续了其第一任期的风格,尤以贸易保护和大规模减税引人关注。这一“增关税、减税收”的组合,意在财政上取得平衡,更重要的是通过对外筑起贸易壁垒、对内减税放松,来吸引制造业回流,推动美国再工业化。然而,特朗普的政策主张可能存在多个矛盾。高关税和美国经济、外交利益存在矛盾。在经济方面,高关税难以弥补减税带来的财政缺口,财政赤字仍可能大幅扩张。短期内,进口需求难以迅速减少,关税成本大概率...

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