智通财经APP获悉,美银证券发布研究报告称,维持华能国际电力股份(00902)“中性”评级,因为产能电价仍然是强劲的盈利缓冲,占整体第三季税前利润的45%,目标价由4.9港元微降至4.8港元。该行认为,相当于预测市账率1倍的估值大致合理,股本回报率(ROE)为10%,收益率接近6%。
报告中称,华能国际电力业绩会议上表示减值可能每季都会发生,2025年的电价或面临一些下行压力,但目前置评仍言之过早。该行考虑到第三季表现不如预期及更多减值,而下调对其盈测,特别是今年,但被单位燃料成本降低有所抵消。
该行表示,下调华能2024年盈利预测15%,主要因为40亿元人民币的减值、第三季表现逊预期,以及单位燃料成本走势,并微降其对公司2025年至2026年的盈利预测各约3%,明年ROE预测被调低至9.9%。
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