【华联期货：马士基调降削弱EC多头信心 关注船司提价落地情况】金十期货10月29日讯，周二集运欧线大幅低开后宽幅震荡，主力EC2412收盘价较上一交易日下跌6.28%。国内集运现货运价指数方面，周一SCFIS欧线为2207.87点，周环比上涨0.15%，由此计算出EC2410交割价为2267.83点。最新一周物流保通保畅监测数据显示，监测港口累计完成货物和集装箱吞吐量环比分别下降0.61%和1.88%，出口水平呈现季节性回落。受到马士基等船司调降运价的影响，周二欧线主力2412合约大幅低开后围绕3000点震荡，由于盘面价格部分超前透支此前的挺价预期，市场对本轮提价的实际落地情况极为敏感，并且EC2412和EC2502合约的跳空低开一定程度上表明，在连续震荡之后，多头信心不足或有减仓止盈意向。在EC2410交割后，主力多空资金将逐步切换至EC2502合约，而受到春节后的海运需求淡季影响，EC2502仍相对EC2412高估。策略方面，在淡季货运需求影响下，马士基的调降行为可能被市场视为变盘信号，若跳空缺口短期不能回补则可能出现趋势反转，盘面短期震荡偏弱，EC2502参考压力位2700点。
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