Vulcan Materials Company VMC is scheduled to release third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 30, before the opening bell.

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In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.9% and 1%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, earnings increased 2.6% but revenues declined 4.7%.

Vulcan’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average surprise of 2.5%.

The Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VMC’s third-quarter earnings per share has been revised downward to $2.42 from $2.47 over the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a rise of 5.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Vulcan Materials Company Price and EPS Surprise

Vulcan Materials Company price-eps-surprise | Vulcan Materials Company Quote

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.07 billion, suggesting a 5.3% year-over-year decline.

Factors to Note

Vulcan's third-quarter revenues are anticipated to have experienced a year-over-year decrease, primarily due to reduced volumes caused by adverse weather conditions and less traction on cement price increases. Additionally, the quarter's concrete sales are anticipated to be lower following the sale of the Texas concrete business. Aggregates volumes during this period were affected by Hurricane Helene and decelerating single-family construction activity. Hurricane Helene (followed immediately by Hurricane Milton) certainly has been a negative indication of construction activity, mostly in Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Alabama and Georgia.

Nonetheless, strong pricing gains in aggregates, acceleration in infrastructure spending and accretive acquisitions are likely to have offset the Hurricane impacts. Infrastructure construction, particularly for aggregates-intensive highways, roads and streets, might have also contributed to its performance in the quarter. Moreover, its acquisition of Whitaker (closed in the second quarter) is likely to have contributed to the company’s top line in the third quarter. Also, Vulcan’s consistent focus on improving unit profitability across the segments on every ton it sells to maximize its earnings is commendable.

The Aggregates business, including crushed stone, sand and gravel and other aggregates (which accounted for 80.1% of total second-quarter revenues), has been a major contributor to top-line growth. Our model suggests that net sales from the Aggregates segment will grow 1.8% to $1.66 billion from a year ago. We also predict Aggregates volumes to decline 5.1% but Aggregates price is likely to grow 10% in the quarter.

Our model suggests net sales from the Asphalt Mix segment (which accounted for 17.4% of total revenues in the second quarter) to be $355.9 million, indicating 2.5% growth from a year ago. We also predict volumes for the Asphalt Mix unit to grow 1% year over year and price to increase 5.2% year over year.

We also anticipate revenues from the Concrete segment (which accounted for 8.3% of total revenues in the second quarter) to decline 48.1% to $189.1 million from a year ago. We also predict Concrete volumes to decline 50.5% year over year but Concrete prices to grow 7.1% year over year.

Meanwhile, higher cost inflation, the shortage of skilled labor and rising wage costs are expected to have impacted VMC’s third-quarter margins.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for VMC

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vulcan this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: VMC has an Earnings ESP of -4.60%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies in the Zacks Construction sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation LPX has an Earnings ESP of +5.92% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

LPX reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 25.2%. The company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 45.1%.

UFP Industries, Inc. UFPI has an Earnings ESP of +0.37% and a Zacks Rank #3.

UFPI’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 13.8%. The company reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed on other two occasions, the average surprise being 4.6%.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank #2.

HWM’s earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 10.9%. Earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 41.3% year over year.

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