核心观点:近期大类资产的宏观交易主线从降息预期切换到再通胀,美元走强打压人民币。当前,由事件驱动的人民币贬值压力已经基本释放,后续人民币汇率波动率放大时点或在11月初。即便极端情况发生,人民币对美元贬值有“顶”,但可能会重现“三价背离”。考虑到国内政策的重要观测时点与美国大选结果出炉时点可能重合,通过内生动力对冲外部波动的可能性较大,从而为国内风险资产提供一定安全垫,也为人民币币值稳定提供一定支撑...
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