UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:UMBF) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.8% to hit US$410m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$2.23, some 3.7% above whatthe analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on UMB Financial after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for UMB Financial

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from UMB Financial's five analysts is for revenues of US$2.35b in 2025. This would reflect a huge 54% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 10% to US$7.21 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.14 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 6.8% to US$127despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of UMB Financial's earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on UMB Financial, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$137 and the most bearish at US$114 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting UMB Financial is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that UMB Financial's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 41% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that UMB Financial is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for UMB Financial going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with UMB Financial .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.