【碳酸锂近月合约进入交割月，绝对价格与价差大幅走强】金十期货11月01日讯，国泰君安期货点评：碳酸锂LC2411合约进入交割月，绝对价格与价差均大幅走强。截至上午收盘，碳酸锂期货近月合约上涨6.42%至76250元/吨，主力合约LC2501合约上涨4.63%至77950元/吨。LC2411合约持仓量2.6万手，仓单量4.5万吨。持仓量于昨日限仓前，由5.4万手减仓至2.6万手。2411-2501合约价差近三日内由-3650元/吨收窄至-1200元/吨附近，跨期价差大幅走强。从基本面来看，四季度需求或好于前期排产预期，带动碳酸锂库存延续去化，市场原先预期磷酸铁锂排产减少约-20%，后修复至持平或微降。供给端来看，近期发布的三季报中，Pilbara下调产量指引，2025财年产量由80-84万吨下调至70-74万吨。与此同时，外矿发运量下滑，10月澳洲锂辉石已发出28.7万吨，预计月末累计33万吨左右，四季度发货量预计延续三季度，月发运量保持在30-35万吨，9月澳洲锂辉石发出37.2万吨，后续到港量预计延续下滑趋势。碳酸锂进入交割月后，盘面交易交割逻辑，关注短期价格宽幅波动风险。
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