It's been a sad week for Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE:ONTO), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$176 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$252m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.07. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Onto Innovation after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Onto Innovation

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Onto Innovation from nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.15b in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 51% to US$5.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.56 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$258, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Onto Innovation at US$280 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$230. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 18% annually. So although Onto Innovation is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Onto Innovation. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Onto Innovation analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.