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The S&P 500 (SP500) on Thursday slipped 0.99% for October to end at 5,705.39 points. Its accompanying SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) shed 0.89% for the same period.
The benchmark index's negative finish snaps Wall Street's five-month win streak. Traditionally, September has been the worst month for markets, but this year October took up that mantle.
In a roller-coaster of a month, U.S. equities started October with a bit of a wobble amid escalating Middle East tensions which in turn drove wild swings in oil prices. However, a blowout September nonfarm payrolls report strengthened confidence in the U.S. economy and offset those geopolitical concerns.
Stocks then continued to climb, and on the two-year anniversary of Wall Street's current bull run, the S&P (SP500) achieved a major milestone in crossing 5,800 points for the very first time. A week later, on September 18, the benchmark gauge notched its longest win-streak of 2024 and its last record close at 5,864.67 points.
The mid-month advance was largely driven by well-received quarterly reports from the major banks and a rotation out of megacap technology stocks and into all corners of the market. Those factors helped overcome more concerns over an escalation in the Middle East and a hotter-than-anticipated consumer inflation report.
The last nine days of October for the markets, however, have been marked by selling, primarily due to poorly received quarterly earnings from several high-profile companies. Industrial giants such as GE Aerospace (GE), 3M (MMM), Honeywell (HON) and Boeing (BA) disappointed investors with their performance.
A post-earnings slide in Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have weighed on tech stocks this week, especially today - the final day of October - which saw the S&P (SP500) plunge nearly 2%.
Meanwhile, economic data has continued to paint a bit of a mixed picture. Aside from the aforementioned robust nonfarm payrolls and hot consumer inflation reports, market participants also received the first estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP growth and the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index reading for September.
All of this data together suggests that the U.S. economy remains strong and that inflation is still a bit of a problem, which leads to an environment that makes monetary policy easing difficult. Accordingly, expectations for more aggressive loosening from the Fed have been significantly dialed back, following the central bank's bumper half-point rate cut last month. A month ago, the odds of another 50 basis point cut in November stood at ~35%. Today, those odds are zero. Markets are instead seeing a 90% chance of only a 25 basis point cut.
Another notable topic on market participants' minds this month was the U.S. presidential election. With both candidates - Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican opponent Donald Trump - running largely neck-to-neck in polls, traders remain torn over which potential sectors and stocks will benefit and which won't under either administration. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick on Friday highlighted that this was one of the least volatile Octobers for equities in an election year.
Turning to the monthly performance of the S&P 500 (SP500) sectors, eight of the 11 ended in the red, led by a nearly 5% retreat in Health Care. Financials, Communication Services and Energy were the three gainers. Technology fell 1%. See below a breakdown of the performance of the sectors as well as their accompanying SPDR Select Sector ETFs from September 30 close to October 31 close:
#1: Financials +2.55%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLF) +2.56%.
#2: Communication Services +1.80%, and the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) +1.81%.
#3: Energy +0.71%, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLE) +0.90%.
#4: Information Technology -1.00%, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLK) -1.56%.
#5: Utilities -1.07%, and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLU) -1.08%.
#6: Industrials -1.39%, and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLI) -1.19%.
#7: Consumer Discretionary -1.57%, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) -1.74%.
#8: Consumer Staples -2.94%, and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLP) -3.47%.
#9: Real Estate -3.41%, and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLRE) -3.29%.
#10: Materials -3.55%, and the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLB) -3.10%.
#11: Health Care -4.73%, and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLV) -4.64%.
For investors looking to track the benchmark S&P 500 (SP500), here are some exchange-traded funds of interest: (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), and (SPXU).
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