Wall Street notches first two-week losing streak since August ahead of election, Fed

seekingalpha
02 Nov 2024

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The S&P 500 (SP500) on Friday slipped 1.37% for the week to end at 5,728.79 points, posting gains in three out of five sessions. Its accompanying SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) shed 1.38% for the week.

The benchmark index notched a two-week losing streak for the first time since early August. That's coming off a loss for October on Thursday, snapping the gauge's five-month win streak.

It was a week packed to the brim with heaps of economic data and a deluge of quarterly results, including no less than five of the Magnificent 7 companies. Of those, Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) saw a positive reaction to their earnings, while Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) and Apple (AAPL) disappointed.

Investors were unhappy with Microsoft's (MSFT) soft Azure cloud revenue growth guidance and Meta's (META) heavy artificial intelligence-focused capital expenditure plans. The decline in their stocks led to a rout in markets on Thursday, which also ensured that the S&P (SP500) turned negative for October and halted a run of five consecutive months of gains.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) missed quarterly revenue consensus estimates in key market China and in its services segment.

Turning to the bright spots, Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL) delivered a comfortable top- and bottom-line beat, driven by a strong showing in subscriptions, platforms, devices and Google Cloud.

Amazon (AMZN) saw the most positive reaction, after the e-commerce and tech giant issued strong revenue guidance for the all-important holiday season quarter.

There were plenty of other high-profile firms that reported their financials, including: Ford (F), PayPal (PYPL), McDonald's (MCD), Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Caterpillar (CAT), AMD (AMD), Uber (UBER), and Intel (INTC).

Though Big Tech quarterly results grabbed a chunk of the week's spotlight, there was also a steady flow of important economic indicators on tap, largely to do with the labor market.

On Tuesday, September job openings came in at 7.443M, the lowest level since early 2021. In a contrary signal, on Wednesday, a gauge of private sector employment showed an addition of 233K jobs in October, a figure that completely smashed estimates.

All that led up to the October nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Jobs growth was widely expected to have taken a hit due to hurricanes and a machinists' strike at planemaker Boeing (BA).

Still, the final figures were significantly below lowered expectations. As per the data, the U.S. economy added 12K jobs in October, the lowest level since December 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said it was "likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by" hurricanes Helene and Milton. The agency also noted that the Boeing (BA) strike likely subtracted 44K jobs in the transportation equipment manufacturing industry.

Apart from labor market indicators, market participants also received an advance estimate on U.S. GDP growth on Wednesday. The economy grew 2.8% in Q3, missing the consensus mark of +3.0%. Still, with consumer spending constituting much of that growth with a +3.7% annualized increase, the report pointed to robustness.

Finally, the September core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - widely seen as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - was a mixed bag. The PCE deflator rose at its highest pace on a M/M basis since August this year, while also coming in a tad hotter than anticipated on a Y/Y basis.

All the data together suggested a continued deterioration in the labor market, an economy that was still chugging along, and an inflation situation that may not be completely out of the woods yet. It keeps the Fed on track to deliver another interest rate cut next week.

But the Fed's penultimate monetary policy meeting of the year will not be the main event. That honor goes to the U.S. presidential election that is set to culminate on November 5.

Turning to the weekly performance of the S&P 500 (SP500) sectors, nine of the 11 ended in the red, led by Technology and Real Estate. Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary were the two gainers. See below a breakdown of the performance of the sectors as well as their accompanying SPDR Select Sector ETFs from October 25 close to November 1 close:

#1: Communication Services +1.53%, and the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) +1.71%.

#2: Consumer Discretionary +0.48%, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) -0.36%.

#3: Financials -0.18%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLF) +0.02%.

#4: Health Care -0.57%, and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLV) -0.57%.

#5: Industrials -1.03%, and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLI) -1.03%.

#6: Materials -1.22%, and the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLB) -0.88%.

#7: Consumer Staples -1.31%, and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLP) -1.12%.

#8: Energy -2.13%, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLE) -1.94%.

#9: Utilities -2.81%, and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLU) -2.80%.

#10: Real Estate -3.07%, and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLRE) -3.02%.

#11: Information Technology -3.28%, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLK) -2.77%.

For investors looking to track the benchmark S&P 500 (SP500), here are some exchange-traded funds of interest: (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), and (SPXU).

For investors looking into the future of what's happening, take a look at the Seeking Alpha Catalyst Watch to see next week's breakdown of actionable events that stand out.

More on the markets

  • Jobs, With Revisions, Show A Net 100,000 Jobs Lost For October
  • Jobs Report Sends Mixed Signals, But Another Rate Cut Is Still Very Likely
  • S&P 500: Second Sign Of Downside Volatility Emerges, Odds Of Medium-Term Corrective Decline Increase
  • Nvidia to join the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel
  • SA Charts: Where did all the job growth go in October?

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