Al Root

The Chinese EV maker BYD just won't stop growing, raising the possibility that it might again beat Tesla in terms of electric-vehicle sales in the fourth quarter. Tesla, however, won't go quietly into the night.

On Friday, BYD announced October sales of a record 500,526 passenger vehicles, up 66% from a year earlier and 20% above the total for September. It is the first time sales have topped half a million units in a month.

In early trading, BYD's U.S.-listed American Depositary Receipts were down 0.6% at $72.30, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 0.9% and 1%, respectively. Coming into Friday trading, the ADRs were up about 32% year to date.

BYD sells both all-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. It sold almost 190,000 all-electric vehicles in October, putting it on pace to sell about 515,000 EVs in the fourth quarter.

That's the same number Tesla is aiming to sell in the fourth quarter. Tesla management said in the company's third-quarter earnings report that they expect to deliver more vehicles in 2024 than in 2023. To do that, Elon Musk's company would have to sell at least 515,000 cars and trucks in the final three months of the year.

Wall Street isn't confident that will happen. The consensus forecast among analysts surveyed by FactSet is closer to 505,000 vehicles. That would give BYD the quarterly EV sales crown for the second time.

BYD sold more all-electric cars than Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2023.

BYD has gained ground relative to Tesla by selling lower-priced EVs. The average price for a Tesla globally is north of $40,000, compared with closer to $20,000 for BYD.

Tesla is launching a lower-priced EV in the first half of 2025. It's hoping to grow sales by 20% to 30% in the coming year, following a year of little or no growth in 2024.

Through the end of October, BYD has sold 1.2 million all-electric cars, up 12% year over year. It has sold about 1.9 million plug-in hybrids, up 62%.

Plug-in hybrids have had a better year than all-electric cars, both in China and in the U.S.

More than 50% of the new cars sold in China are all-electric or plug-in hybrids. In the U.S. that number is closer to 10%. Hybrids that don't plug in account for another 10% of U.S. new-car sales.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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November 01, 2024 10:53 ET (14:53 GMT)

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