It's been a mediocre week for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (NASDAQ:KNSA) shareholders, with the stock dropping 18% to US$22.59 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.18 per share on revenues of US$112m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International are now predicting revenues of US$578.6m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a huge 51% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.51 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$573.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.60 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$35.83, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$32.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 39% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 65% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 21% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$35.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.