It's been a good week for Landsea Homes Corporation (NASDAQ:LSEA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.4% to US$11.50. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$326m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 212%, coming in at US$0.30 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Landsea Homes after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Landsea Homes

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Landsea Homes from four analysts is for revenues of US$1.60b in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 9.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 99% to US$1.46. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.68b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.67 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$15.25, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Landsea Homes' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Landsea Homes, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$18.00 and the most bearish at US$12.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Landsea Homes' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Landsea Homes' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Landsea Homes analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Landsea Homes (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.