【为何说沪铜中期走势仍偏强?】金十期货11月8日讯,宏观层面美联储11月降息符合预期,美国大选靴子落地,川普交易驱动在执政前夕进入空档期,短期焦点在国内会议能否带来超预期政策信号,目前国内股市表现反应整体为偏多氛围为主。铜基本面来看,国内库存去化,现货升水小幅走强,铜精矿TC小幅上涨,不过因为现货散单加工费持续低迷,明年长单的确定可能存在较大分歧,叠加长时间的低加工费可能会令冶炼厂存在减产压力。中辉期货分析师苏日嘎拉图认为,整体而言,铜基本面边际转好,价格影响仍受宏观主导,短期维持区间震荡运行,参考震荡区间7.6-7.8万,突破区间再做重新规划为宜。长期角度看特朗普胜选,加税忧虑会扰动市场,不过国内可能进行降准降息刺激消费对冲外贸损失,因此长期仍有上行驱动。
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