Investors in Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.9% to close at US$11.12 following the release of its quarterly results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.04, some 44% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$393m. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Hillman Solutions

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Hillman Solutions from eight analysts is for revenues of US$1.55b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 394% to US$0.21. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.21 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 6.9% to US$13.03. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Hillman Solutions, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$16.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Hillman Solutions' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.5% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Hillman Solutions to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hillman Solutions going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Hillman Solutions (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.