Northern Trust Corporation NTRS shares have gained 19.8% in the past six months, outperforming the industry’s growth of 17.4%. The stock has also outperformed its close peers like Comerica Incorporated CMA and Fifth Third Bancorp FITB in the same time frame.

Six-Month Price Performance

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Northern Trust Reports Strong Q3 Earnings Performance

The company recently reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 23. Its adjusted earnings per share of $1.96 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73 and compared favorably to adjusted earnings of $1.49 per share recorded in the prior-year quarter. Third-quarter results benefited from a rise in fee income. Also, an increase in total assets under custody and assets under management balances supported its financials. Strong capital ratios were another positive.

What’s Aiding NTRS’ Performance

Fed’s Interest Rate Cuts to Aid NII: The Federal Reserve announced a reduction of 50 basis points in interest rates in September and hinted toward two more cuts in 2024, followed by four more in 2025. These rate cuts will likely lead to improvement in net interest income (NII) as funding costs are expected to stabilize over time, which is a positive development for banks, including NTRS, FITB and CMA. 

Northern Trust’s NII witnessed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2% over the past three years ended 2023 on the back of higher rates. Net interest margin (NIM) increased to 1.52% in 2023 from 1.36% in 2022 and 0.96% in 2021. Both NII and NIM increased in the first nine months of 2024. 

As the interest rates come down, the demand for loans will improve. This, in turn, will lead in NII and NIM expansion. This is expected to result in greater profitability for NTRS as it earns more interest on these loans. 

Management anticipates that NII for 2024 will remain steady at $1.98 billion recorded in 2023.

Strong Organic Growth: The company is committed to growing organically. In addition to solid NII growth, NTRS’ non-interest income has seen a CAGR of 1% over the last three years (2020-2023) with the momentum continuing in the first nine months of 2024.
 
Rising NII and fee income contributed to a steady growth in revenues, which witnessed a CAGR of 3.5% in the same period, with the uptrend continuing in the first nine months of 2024.
 
Additionally, the company’s loan and lease balance witnessed a CAGR of 7.7% in the last three years (ending 2023). Although loans decreased in the first nine months of 2024, management believes that this is a temporary fluctuation rather than a long-term trend. As the client base continues to expand, the company expects to see a rebound in loan activity in the upcoming period. 

Manageable Debt Level: As of Sept. 30, 2024, Northern Trust’s total debt (comprising long-term debt and other borrowings) was $11 billion. The Federal Reserve and other Central Bank deposits totaled $40.8 billion as of the same date. The higher level of liquid assets compared with the company’s obligations makes the debt levels seem manageable. 

Given the solid liquidity position, we believe the company will be able to consistently meet debt obligations in the near term, even if the economic situation worsens.

Impressive Capital Distributions: Northern Trust’s capital distributions seem impressive. In October 2021, the company announced a 25-million share repurchase program with no expiration date. In the first nine months of 2024, the bank repurchased approximately 8.1 million shares. As of Sept. 2024, 13.3 million shares remained available under the authorization. 

Apart from share repurchases, the bank also pays out quarterly dividends. On Oct. 22, 2024, Northern Trust announced a quarterly dividend of 75 cents per share on its common stock. This dividend will be paid out on Jan. 1, 2025, to its shareholders of record as of Dec. 6, 2024.

The company has increased its dividend once in the past five years, with a five-year annualized dividend growth of 2.08%. Currently, NTRS has a 43% dividend payout ratio, which boosts investors’ confidence and enhances shareholder value.

NTRS is well-capitalized as its capital ratios remain well above the regulatory requirements. As of Sept. 30, 2024, the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 12.6% and a total capital ratio was 15.6%. 

Given the strong capital position, NTRS’ capital distribution activities seem sustainable in the long run.

Analyst Estimates for Northern Trust

In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved upward. This upward adjustment reflects a positive sentiment among analysts and suggests encouraging prospects.

Estimate Revision Trend

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Parting Thoughts on NTRS Stock

Northern Trust’s organic growth, combined with a solid capital position, is expected to bolster its financial performance in the long run. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are anticipated to reduce funding costs and further enhance its NII and NIM growth. Hence, the stock is likely to have more room left to run. 

Given the strong fundamentals and bright long-term prospects, NTRS stock is an attractive pick for investors now.

Northern Trust currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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