Last week, you might have seen that MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.1% to US$24.82 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$307m were in line with what the analysts predicted, MGIC Investment surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.77 per share, a notable 15% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for MGIC Investment

After the latest results, the five analysts covering MGIC Investment are now predicting revenues of US$1.25b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 8.0% to US$2.77 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.78 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$26.21. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on MGIC Investment, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$23.50 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting MGIC Investment is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that MGIC Investment's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4.3% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.9% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.1% annually. So it looks like MGIC Investment is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$26.21, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for MGIC Investment going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for MGIC Investment (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.